FIRST HALF YEAR 2024 MAUI REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE: ARE THERE ANY OPPORTUNITIES?
A picture (in this case, a graph can explain alot). See below that Fidelity National Title provided that explains our market.
From the graph above, you can see the deep dive from the COVID-19 lockdown in spring of 2020, then after June 2020 things started to perk up again, culminating in the highest pending and sold around May 2021 but things remained quite busy throughout 2021. As interest rates rose the downward trend continued then the August Fires created another dip only to turn around an edge higher but nowhere near normal highs.
If you have been following Maui News, then you may have read that reports that high interest rates, Minatoya List condo issues, and rising insurance costs are all creating uncertainty. Uncertainty creates buyers staying on the fence.
Here is an excerpt for the Realtors Association of Maui:
U.S. existing-home sales declined for the third consecutive month, as
higher mortgage rates and rising sales prices hindered market activity
during what has traditionally been one of the busiest months of the year.
According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), sales of
previously owned homes dipped 0.7% month-over-month and 2.8% year over-year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million units.Nationally, total housing inventory grew 6.7% month-over-month to 1.28
million units heading into June, for a 3.7 months’ supply at the current sales
pace, according to NAR. However, the increase in supply has yet to temper
home prices, which have continued to rise nationwide. At last measure, the
median existing-home price climbed to $419,300, a 5.8% increase from the
same period last year and a record high for the month.Maui County: New Listings increased 17.0 percent for Single Family homes and 9.8
percent for Condominium homes. Pending Sales decreased 25.4 percent
for Single Family homes and 40.4 percent for Condominium homes.
Inventory increased 25.8 percent for Single Family homes and 198.2
percent for Condominium homes.Median Sales Price increased 30.8 percent to $1,350,000 for Single Family
homes but remained flat for Condominium homes. Days on Market
increased 4.4 percent for Single Family homes but decreased 6.3 percent
for Condominium homes. Months Supply of Inventory increased 33.3
percent for Single Family homes and 259.3 percent for Condominium
homes.
For Single Family Homes, the median price, the percent of list price received all went up. The inventory of homes for sale went up as well, which is good news for buyers looking to buy. Pending sales and closed sales went down.
The Maui Condominium Market inventory increased 198.2%, The one thing that it can be pointed that (anecdotal) is that sellers are concerned about the risk of Maui Country phasing out of short term rentals in MInatoya list condos. This is a hotly debated issue. That concern along with rising insurance costs are in my opinion fueling the large increase in inventory. The percent of list price received also went down. However even with all this news, the price Wailuku and Wailea/Makena condos have INCREASED!
To see the Full June 2024 and Half Year 2024 Market Report: Click Here.
Summary and my opinion: Sometimes the figures tell the story but not the entire story. Maui has been through a lot. Alot on this incredible island in the middle of the Pacific. It became a haven for people looking to get away from urban areas and remote work in paradise during the pandemic. People moved here and some stayed while some felt the island was a bit too “sleepy”. Yep, not really a night life here. It is more of a ‘morning person’ type of place. The ocean is calmest in the morning. The air is cooler, the sunrises are gorgeous only to be rivaled by it’s sunset but night life it is not. Then last summer we had the heartbreaking fires that created so much loss and heartache. It just shined a light on a problem that has been decades in the making; the lack of affordable housing.
So the stats and figures certainly paints a picture. Trends in particular are important to watch. But you need to talk to an experienced realtor as you can see that in some areas prices are not falling. In some areas, homes are still selling at a good pace. It may not have multiple offers but it still sells rather quickly. After all, you just need one real buyer. Certain areas, certain complexes, and certain types of properties have their own micro-economics. That general market report does not show the full picture.
So is there an opportunity here? What does this mean for Maui real estate? That depends! It depends on what you as a buyer/investor are looking to gain. Is it pure cash flow? Is it a place to create memories? Is it a place to call your home away from home? Or do you plan to retire here, if so when? Or are you moving here? Or are you looking to create a business? You see as a realtor, you think it might be just about selling, selling selling but it’s not. It is about YOUR life, and what you want to do with your hard-earned money. It is possible that Maui is not the right place for you? Or maybe it is exactly the right investment. I don’t know and sometimes even the answer to that question may take years for you to know. My best advice is that if you have any interest in investing here on Maui, find yourself an experienced realtor who has an interest in being your realtor for many years to come. This is a long-term relationship.
Having said all that, is there an opportunity during these times? Yes, there is! Don’t read the headlines as they are meant to catch your attention in a noisy world. But it is during these times when most buyers see red that you can really sharpen your pencil, understand the risks and rewards and find that opportunity that you can look back on with a huge smile of satisfaction. So goes that saying “History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme?”.
This island of Maui is resilient and filled with good neighbors. I am so glad to call it home and feel incredibly privileged to serve the clients that I have and many have become friends that I look forward to connecting with when they come to visit. It truly has enriched my life. So thank you to all my of my clients past and present….
Should you have any real estate questions please call your favorite realtor. If you are not being represented then give me a call.
The New Maui Property Tax rates are out. Check it out here.
Disclaimer: Maui Real Estate Market Data is obtained from RAM MLS unless otherwise noted. It is considered reliable but not guaranteed. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
